These Outliers Defy Apartment Construction Cooling Trend
Apartment construction trends reveal a bifurcated market, with most large markets experiencing contraction, while a few outliers are emerging where pipeline momentum defies the national cooling trend nationwide.
As apartment construction enters a new phase, deliveries are projected to fall by more than one-third over the next 12 months, returning the nation to a more normal supply environment following elevated volumes during the past few years, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. Yet, while the national picture suggests retrenchment, ten markets are projected to increase apartment deliveries in the coming year.
At the forefront is Los Angeles, which is expected to nearly double its apartment pipeline from 8,000 units at the end of the second quarter this year to more than 15,500 units over the next year. This is notable as the market is accustomed to construction delays that challenge developers there.
Elsewhere in California, rising stars San Diego and Anaheim are also poised to increase apartment supply volume by more than 70% each over the next year, reversing a recent trend of limited supply that has constrained these markets.
Detroit and Cincinnati, often overshadowed by coastal peers, represent the Midwest with completion volumes expected to increase in the coming year. Detroit is poised to post the second-biggest increase in apartment completions behind Los Angeles, with more than 3,100 units expected to be delivered compared with 1,800 completed as of the second quarter this year, a 77.5% increase. For its part, Cincinnati offers a slightly gentler trajectory, but its 3,100 expected new units represent an almost 50% increase from this year’s totals. Notably, Cincinnati is also among the nation’s recent rent-growth leaders, said RealPage.
In Texas, most cities are pulling back after several years of heightened construction, but Fort Worth is an exception. The only Southern market expected to post an increase in apartment construction over the next 12 months, Fort Worth is set to deliver more than 8,000 units, representing a 23% increase. The market’s construction pipeline remains robust relative to nearby cities, where deep cuts in new supply are common.
In the Northeast, supply volumes are expected to increase between 5% and 17% by mid-2026, including Pittsburgh, Newark, Boston and New York. While not as dramatic as the surges seen elsewhere, these upticks suggest targeted pockets of new supply amid a broad environment of slowdown.
While the majority of U.S. renters may see fewer new options on the horizon, residents in Los Angeles, Detroit, Cincinnati, Fort Worth, and key Northeast cities are likely to experience far more change in their apartment landscape over the next year, reshaping local supply equations and influencing rent growth as the cycle turns.
Source: GlobeSt/ALM